The Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Snowpack and the Hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0632.1
• Publication Date: 2016-06-17T22:16:56Z
• Authors: Eleonora M. C. De...; Joshua K. Roundy; Sungwook Wi; Richard N. Palmer
• Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology; Hydrologic models; 550; Hydrologic cycle; Models and modeling; 15. Life on land; 551; 01 natural sciences; 13. Climate action; Climate change; Hydrology; Snow cover; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

AbstractThe potential effects of climate change on the snowpack of the northeastern and upper Midwest United States are assessed using statistically downscaled climate projections from an ensemble of 10 climate models and a macroscale hydrological model. Climate simulations for the region indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures and wetter conditions for the snow season (November–April) during the twenty-first century. However, despite projected increases in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) are found for the region. Snow cover is likely to migrate northward in the future as a result of warmer-than-present air temperatures, with higher loss rates in northern latitudes and at high elevation. Decreases in future (2041–95) snow cover in early spring will likely affect the timing of maximum spring peak streamflow, with earlier peaks predicted in more than 80% of the 124 basins studied.