The Change in Low Cloud Cover in a Warmed Climate Inferred from AIRS, MODIS, and ERA-Interim

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0734.1
• Publication Date: 2017-02-01T19:51:40Z
• Authors: Daniel T. McCoy; Ryan Eastman; Dennis L. Hartmann; Robert Wood
• Keywords: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder; Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer

Abstract Decreases in subtropical low cloud cover (LCC) occur climate model simulations of global warming. In this study 8-day-averaged observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) spanning 2002–14 are combined with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis to compute dependence observed variability LCC on various predictor variables. Large-scale thermodynamic dynamic predictors selected based insight large-eddy (LESs) observational analysis. It is found that increased estimated inversion strength (EIS) associated LCC. Drying free troposphere decreased Decreased accompanies subsidence regions relatively EIS; opposite high EIS. Finally, it increasing sea surface temperature (SST) leads a decrease These results keeping previous studies monthly annual data. Based upon response natural control parameters, change an idealized warming scenario where SST increases by 1 K EIS 0.2 K. For inferred 0.5%–2.7% when regression models trained data between 40°S 40°N 1.1%–1.4% trade cumulus–dominated regions. When used train restricted stratocumulus-dominated highly uncertain varies −1.6% +1.4%, depending region model.