The Resolution Dependence of Contiguous U.S. Precipitation Extremes in Response to CO2 Forcing

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0307.1
• Publication Date: 2016-08-08T21:05:57Z
• Authors: Karin van der Wiel; Sarah B. Kapnick; Gabriel A. Vecchi; William F Cooke; Thomas L. Delworth; Liwei Jia; Hiroyuki Murakami; Seth Underwood; Fanrong Zeng
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Horizontal resolution

Abstract Precipitation extremes have a widespread impact on societies and ecosystems; it is therefore important to understand current future patterns of extreme precipitation. Here, set new global coupled climate models with varying atmospheric resolution has been used investigate the ability these reproduce observed precipitation changes in response increased CO2 concentrations. The was from 2° × grid cells (typical CMIP5 archive) 0.25° (tropical cyclone permitting). Analysis confined contiguous United States (CONUS). It shown that, for models, integrating at higher improves all aspects simulated precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities, seasonal timing. In 2 concentrations, show mean intensification rates during events approximately 3%–4% K−1. However, projected regional are dependent model resolution. For example, highest-resolution hurricane season U.S. Southeast; this increase not found low-resolution model. These results emphasize study there minimum that needed capture weather phenomena generating extremes. Finally, record historical experiments were recent past. part because large intrinsic variability, no evidence attributable change available record.