Faster Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to Volcanoes

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-16-0391.1
• Publication Date: 2016-10-20T14:15:22Z
• Authors: Erica Rosenblum; Ian Eisenman
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Arctic geoengineering; Ice-albedo feedback

Abstract The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive models have struggled to reproduce this trend, typically simulating a slower rate retreat than has been observed. However, bias widely noted decreased participating phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with previous generation (CMIP3). Here simulations are examined from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. It found that simulated historical trends influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included all CMIP5 but only about half models. forcing causes temporary cooling 1980s 1990s, contributes raising 1979–2013 global-mean surface temperature values substantially larger shown warming accompanied an enhanced hence closer observed value, consistent findings approximately linear relationship between temperature. Both generations simulate less sensitive global results imply much difference occurred because inclusion rather improved physics or model resolution.