Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0176.1
• Publication Date: 2018-05-07T19:22:52Z
• Authors: David Rodrigues; M. Carmen Alvarez...; Gabriele Messori; Pascal Yiou; Yoann Robin; Davide Faranda
• Keywords: Atmospheric Circulation; Circulation (fluid dynamics)

Abstract It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability climate models capture large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in context a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, robustness changes simulated these over time. Here we approach this problem from an innovative point view based on dynamical systems theory. We characterize North Atlantic CMIP5 historical simulations (1851–2000) terms two instantaneous metrics: local dimension attractor and stability phase-space trajectories. then use metrics compare Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c) same period. The comparison suggests that (i) most some degree median properties, with finer grids generally perform better; (ii) extremes match similar those found reanalysis; (iii) properties observed for ensemble-mean 20CRv2c are artifacts resulting inhomogeneities standard deviation ensemble time; (iv) long-term trends among 56 members 20CR have sign as multimodel mean, although trend much weaker.