Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0734.1
• Publication Date: 2018-06-06T16:12:57Z
• Authors: Leonard F. Borchert; Wolfgang A. Müller; Johanna Baehr
• Keywords: Predictability; Hindcast; Anomaly (physics); Atlantic Equatorial mode; Gulf Stream; Tropical Atlantic; Initialization

An analysis of a three-member ensemble initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering period 1901–2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in North region for several years. Three to ten years after strong OHT phases 50°N, characteristic pattern sea (SST) anomalies emerges: warm are found and cold emerge Gulf Stream region. This originates from persistent upper-ocean content originate southward-propagating Atlantic. Interannual-to-decadal SST predictability yearly hindcasts is linked this pattern: when initialization hindcast, anomaly correlation coefficients northeast lead 2–9 significantly higher than weak initialization. Surface fluxes mask predictable low-frequency oceanic SSTs northwest phases, zonally asymmetrically 7–9 ahead. study interannual-to-decadal depends strongly on strength subpolar start prediction, indicating physical mechanisms need be taken into account actual predictions.