The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0716.1
• Publication Date: 2019-09-13T14:14:36Z
• Authors: Claire Scannell; Ben B. B. Booth; Nick J. Dunstone; David P. Rowell; Dan J. Bernie; Matthew Kasoar; Apostolos Voulgar...; Laura J. Wilcox; Juan C. Acosta Na...; Øyvind Seland; David J. Paynter
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Robustness

Abstract Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role historical shifts African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on rainfall near-term (10–40 yr) potential emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing literature links future declines to northward shift Sahel climate projections rely RCP scenarios that do not explore range air quality drivers. Here we present from two better envelop emissions. More aggressive cuts result tropical rainbands whose signal can emerge expected internal variability short, 10–20-yr time horizons. We also show for first this impacts East Africa, with evidence delays both onset withdrawal short rains. However, comparisons across models suggest only certain aspects West model responses may be robust, given uncertainties. This work motivates need wider exploration science community assess robustness these projected provide underpin adaptation Africa. In particular, revised estimates legislated measures every 5–10 years would value providing information stakeholders.