A Spatial Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice and Regional Limitations in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0491.1
• Publication Date: 2021-05-11T14:28:28Z
• Authors: Matthew Watts; Wieslaw Maslowski; Younjoo J. Lee; Jaclyn Clement Ki...; Robert Osinski
• Keywords: Sea ice concentration

Abstract The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in subset of models participating phase 6 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics comparison with satellite observations and results from Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling Assimilation System Regional Model. Our study examines historical representation extent, volume, thickness spatial analysis metrics, such as integrated edge error, Brier score, probability score. We find that CMIP6 multimodel mean captures annual cycle 1979–2014 trends remarkably well. However, individual experience wide range uncertainty distribution when compared against measurements reanalysis data. expose common regional model biases, which temporal analyses alone do not capture. identify large errors subregions, implying possible specific limitations or lack some key physical processes. postulate many them could be related oceanic forcing, especially marginal shelf seas, where seasonal changes are adequately simulated. therefore conclude an model’s ability represent observed/reanalysis still remains challenge. propose useful tools diagnose limitations, narrow down processes affecting them, guide future improvements critical projections change.