Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0044.1
• Publication Date: 2022-02-15T17:26:48Z
• Authors: Elina Efstathiou; Tor Eldevik; Marius Årthun; Sigrid Lind
• Keywords: Fast ice

Abstract Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore spatial structure of Sea change as observed over last 40 years. The dominant mode concentration interannual variability corresponds to areal (explains 43% variance) and a center action northeastern where temperate Atlantic inflow meets wintertime ice. area import northerly wind also contribute this “areal-change mode”; increases with more stronger winds from north. remaining 57% variance ice, individually combined, redistributes without changing total area. two leading redistribution modes are dipole increase south Svalbard decrease southwest Novaya Zemlya, tripole central east southeastern Redistribution is mainly contributed by anomalous import. Basic predictability (i.e., lagged response drivers) predominantly associated areal-change influenced temperature Arctic.