Skillful Seasonal Prediction of North American Summertime Heat Extremes

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0364.1
• Publication Date: 2022-03-25T15:32:49Z
• Authors: Liwei Jia; Thomas L. Delworth; Sarah Kapnick; Xiaosong Yang; Nathaniel C. Johnson; William Cooke; Feiyu Lu; Matthew Harrison; Anthony Rosati; Fanrong Zeng; Colleen McHugh; Andrew T. Wittenberg; Liping Zhang; Hiroyuki Murakami; Kai-Chih Tseng
• Keywords: Predictability; Forcing (mathematics); Teleconnection

Abstract This study shows that the frequency of North American summertime (June–August) heat extremes is skillfully predicted several months in advance newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system. Using a statistical optimization method, average predictability time, we identify three large-scale components summer are predictable with significant correlation skill. One component, which related to secular warming trend, continent-wide increase highly at least 9 advance. trend component likely response external radiative forcing. The second largely driven by sea surface temperatures Pacific Atlantic significantly correlated central U.S. soil moisture. largest loadings over United States third El Niño, displays dipole structure America up 4 Potential implications advancing predictions discussed.