ENSO Predictability over the Past 137 Years Based on a CESM Ensemble Prediction System

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0450.1
• Publication Date: 2021-11-09T18:04:55Z
• Authors: Ting Liu; Xunshu Song; Youmin Tang; Zheqi Shen; Xiaoxiao Tan
• Keywords: Predictability; Hindcast; Multivariate ENSO index

Abstract In this study, we conducted an ensemble retrospective prediction from 1881 to 2017 using the Community Earth System Model evaluate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability and its variability on different time scales. To our knowledge, is first assessment of ENSO a long-term hindcast with complicated coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Our results indicate that both dispersion component (DC) signal (SC) contribute interannual variation (measured by relative entropy). Specifically, SC more important for events, whereas DC comparable importance short lead times in weak years. The dominates seasonal predictability, abrupt decrease intensity spring barrier feature ENSO. At interdecadal scale, controls while magnitude determined DC. variations CGCM are generally consistent based intermediate complexity hybrid models. However, has greater contribution than Significance Statement prominent global climate system widespread climatic influence. current understanding mainly forecasts obtained Compared those models, models (CGCMs) include realistic physical processes have potential reproduce complexity. studies CGCMs only focused last 20–60 order examine CGCM.