Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-19-0404.1
• Publication Date: 2020-08-18T21:26:16Z
• Authors: Stephanie Fiedler; Traute Crueger; Roberta D’Agostino; Karsten Peters; Tobias Becker; David Leutwyler; Laura Paccini; Jörg Burdanowitz; Stefan A. Buehler; Alejandro Uribe C...; Thibaut Dauhut; Dietmar Dommenget; Klaus Fraedrich; Leonore Jungandreas; Nicola Maher; Ann Kristin Naumann; Maria Rugenstein; Mirjana Sakradzija; Hauke Schmidt; Frank Sielmann; Claudia Stephan; Claudia Timmreck; Xiuhua Zhu; Bjorn Stevens
• Keywords: Intertropical Convergence Zone; Diurnal cycle

Abstract The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements CMIP6 are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement on different temporal spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes CMIP summer monsoons, double-ITCZ bias, diurnal cycle precipitation. We a reduced amount drizzle events CMIP6, occurs still too frequently. Continuous number consecutive dry days, modes variability, namely, Madden–Julian oscillation El Niño–Southern Oscillation, trends months twentieth century. observed positive trend extreme wet is, however, not captured by any phases, which simulate negative extremely regional biases larger than climate change signal one hopes use identify. Given pace as compared model precipitation, question past strategy development present class global mainstay scientific response change. suggest exploration alternative approaches such high-resolution storm-resolving that can offer better prospects inform us about how might with anthropogenic warming.