Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Information

• DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-11-00085.1
• Publication Date: 2012-03-08T21:58:42Z
• Authors: Ryan D. Torn; Chris Snyder
• Keywords: Intensity; Position (finance)

Abstract With the growing use of tropical cyclone (TC) best-track information for weather and climate applications, it is important to understand uncertainties that are contained in TC position intensity information. Here, an attempt made quantify uncertainty using National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory information, as well during times without aircraft data, by verifying Dvorak minimum sea level pressure (SLP) maximum wind speed estimates with reconnaissance 2000–09. In a climatological sense, decreases more intense TCs, while intensity, measured SLP or speed, increases intensity. The standard deviation satellite-based can be used predictor consensus error when includes both microwave-based estimates, but not contains only Dvorak-based values. Whereas there has been steady decrease seasonal over past 10 yr, which likely due additional data available NHC forecasters, values fairly constant, year-to-year variability mean all TCs season frequency reconnaissance.