An Examination of Wind Decay, Sustained Wind Speed Forecasts, and Gust Factors for Recent Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

• DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-13-00125.1
• Publication Date: 2014-11-21T21:04:44Z
• Authors: Bryce Tyner; Anantha Aiyyer; Jonathan Blaes; Donald Reid Hawkins
• Keywords: Maximum sustained wind; National weather service

Abstract In this study, several analyses were conducted that aimed at improving sustained wind speed and gust forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting coastal regions. An objective forecast analysis of recent TCs the mid-Atlantic region was first to set a benchmark improvement. Forecasts from National Digital Forecast Database compared observations surface in region. The suggests general overprediction speeds, especially areas affected by strongest winds. Currently, Weather Service Offices use software tool known as Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM) (TCMWindTool) develop their grids. assumes linear decay speeds when interpolating Hurricane Center 12–24-hourly TCM product hourly postlandfall evaluate assumption. Results indicate large errors forecasted can emerge, stronger storms. Finally, an factors conducted. Gust associated with weak are shown be highly variable but average around 1.5. decrease values 1.2 above 40 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) insensitive direction, suggesting local rather than upstream roughness largely dictates factor given location. Forecasters encouraged increase land reduction used TCMWindTool modify account including roughness.