WRF Hub-Height Wind Forecast Sensitivity to PBL Scheme, Grid Length, and Initial Condition Choice in Complex Terrain

• DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-16-0120.1
• Publication Date: 2016-12-29T20:29:20Z
• Authors: David Siuta; Gregory West; Roland Stull
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 0211 other engineering and technologies; 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering; 02 engineering and technology

Abstract This study evaluates the sensitivity of wind turbine hub-height speed forecasts to planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, grid length, and initial condition selection in Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model over complex terrain. Eight PBL schemes available for WRF-ARW dynamical core were tested with conditions sources from North American Mesoscale (NAM) model Global Forecast System (GFS) produce short-term forecasts. The largest improvements forecast accuracy primarily depended on length or scheme choice, although most important factor varied by location, season, time day, bias-correction application. Aggregated all locations, Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2) provided best accuracy, particularly 12-km length. Other lengths, however, did perform better than ACM2 individual seasons locations.