Performance of Basin-Scale HWRF Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

• DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-16-0150.1
• Publication Date: 2017-04-13T17:25:54Z
• Authors: Ghassan J. Alaka; Xuejin Zhang; Sundararaman G. G...; Stanley B. Golden...; Frank D. Marks
• Keywords: Atlantic hurricane

Abstract The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model is a dynamical model that has shown annual improvements in its tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts as result of various modifications. This study focuses on an experimental version HWRF, called the basin-scale HWRF (HWRF-B), configured with 1) large, static outer domain to cover multiple TC basins 2) sets high-resolution movable nests produce for several TCs simultaneously. Although HWRF-B operational produced comparable average errors 2011–14 Atlantic hurricane seasons, strengths are identified linked configuration differences. were generally more accurate compared when at least one additional was simultaneously active or east Pacific and, particular, greater than 3500 km away. In addition, long lead times, lower initialized north 25°N west 60°W, highlighting sensitivity location HWRF’s outermost domain. A case study, performed Michael, corroborated these strengths. shows potential serve effective bridge between regional modeling systems next-generational global efforts.