Verification of Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Variables in Tornadic Tropical Cyclones

• DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-22-0117.1
• Publication Date: 2023-03-08T16:37:29Z
• Authors: Leland M. MacDonald; Christopher J. No...
• Keywords: Middle latitudes

Abstract Tropical cyclone tornadoes (TCTORs) are a hazard to life and property during landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The threat is often spread over wide area within the TC envelope must be continually evaluated as moves inland dissipates. To anticipate risk of TCTORs, forecasters may use high-resolution, rapidly updating model analyses short-range forecasts such Rapid Refresh (RAP) High-Resolution (HRRR), an ingredients-based approach similar that used for forecasting continental midlatitude tornadoes. Though RAP HRRR errors have been identified in typical convective environments, this study evaluates performance envelope, with particular attention given sounding-derived parameters previously useful TCTOR forecasting. A sample 1730 observed upper-air soundings sourced from 13 TCs made landfall along U.S. coastline between 2017 2019. paired their corresponding gridpoint analysis, 12-h forecast, forecast. Model calculated both raw sounding variables temperature, dewpoint, wind speed, well selected parameters. Results show moist bias worsens height across all runs. There also statistically significant underpredictions stability-related available potential energy (CAPE) kinematic vertical shear.