Estimated projection of oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer deaths in Spain to 2044

• DOI: 10.1186/s12903-022-02487-6
• Publication Date: 2022-10-14T07:03:39Z
• Authors: Pedro Infante-Cossio; Antonio-Jose Dura...; Antonio Castaño-S...; Rafael Martinez-D...; Jose-Juan Pereyra...
• Keywords: Norwegian

Abstract Background Oral cavity cancer (OCC) and oropharyngeal (OPC) are two common malignancies whose mortality is worryingly increasing worldwide. However, few studies have estimated the trends for these cancers in coming years. This study analysed rates OCC OPC observed between 1980 2019 to generate a predictive model next 25 years Spain. Methods Mid-year population data death certificates period 1980–2019 were obtained from Spanish National Institute of Statistics. The Nordpred program (Norwegian Cancer Registry, Oslo, Norway) was used calculate adjusted as well projections with an age-period-cohort 2020–2044. Results specific rate per 100,000 inhabitants decreased 2.36 (1980–1984) 2.17 (2015–2019) expected decline 1.68 (2040–2044), particularly males. For OPC, rose 0.67 1.23 projected drop 0.71 (2040–2044). In group females > 65 predictions showed rising both OPC. projects more deaths than males 2040–2044, while will decrease gradually increase females. Conclusions Although been found last decades, there still room improve them future by promoting campaigns against smoking alcohol consumption. become growing health problem. Vaccination prevention human papillomavirus-associated may long-term impact on cancers, which should be evaluated upcoming studies. Clinical relevance Our findings highlighted importance closely monitoring age sex, need continue preventive measures main known risk factors, such tobacco, alcohol, papillomavirus infection.