Estimating the effectiveness of routine asymptomatic PCR testing at different frequencies for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections

• DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01982-x
• Publication Date: 2021-04-27T02:04:50Z
• Authors: Joel Hellewell; ; ; Timothy W. Russell; Rupert Beale; Gavin Kelly; Catherine Houlihan; Eleni Nastouli; Adam J. Kucharski
• Keywords: Male; 0301 basic medicine; SARS-CoV-2; Test sensitivity; R; COVID-19; PCR testing; Bayes Theorem; Presymptomatic infections; Polymerase Chain Reaction; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing; Healthcare workers; Medicine; Humans; Female; Research Article

Abstract Background Routine asymptomatic testing using RT-PCR of people who interact with vulnerable populations, such as medical staff in hospitals or care workers homes, has been employed to help prevent outbreaks among populations. Although the peak sensitivity can be high, probability detecting an infection will vary throughout course infection. The effectiveness routine therefore depend on frequency and how PCR detection varies over time. Methods We fitted a Bayesian statistical model dataset twice weekly tests UK healthcare performed by self-administered nasopharyngeal swab, regardless symptoms. jointly estimated times positive test time following infection; we then compared strategies calculating that symptomatic is detected before symptom onset within 7 days Results peaked at 77% (54–88%) 4 after infection, decreasing 50% (38–65%) 10 Our results suggest substantially higher infections 1–3 than previously published estimates. every other day would detect 57% (33–76%) cases prior 94% (75–99%) if were returned day. Conclusions enable high proportion infected individuals early their provided frequent from notification sufficiently fast.