Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at the communal level in Burkina Faso: an application of the small area estimation approach

• DOI: 10.1186/s12963-024-00341-1
• Publication Date: 2024-08-18T10:01:52Z
• Authors: Hervé Bassinga; Mady Ouedraogo; Kadari Cisse; Parfait Yira; Sibiri Clément Ou...; Abdou Nombré; Wofom Lydie Marie...; Mathias Kuepie; Toussaint Rouamba
• Keywords: Male; Census; Economics; Malaria Parasite; Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics; Population; Immunology; R858-859.7; 0302 clinical medicine; Sociology; Communes; Burkina Faso; Health Sciences; Prevalence; FOS: Mathematics; Pathology; Humans; Global Impact of Arboviral Diseases; Asymptomatic Infections; Global Maternal and Child Health Outcomes; Demography; Geography; Research; FOS: Clinical medicine; Confidence interval; Statistics; Spatial analysis; Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health; Infant; Malaria; Asymptomatic; FOS: Sociology; Management; Small area estimates; Environmental health; Socioeconomics; Child, Preschool; Small-Area Analysis; Carrier State; Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health; Medicine; Female; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Estimation; Mathematics

Abstract Background In malaria-endemic countries, asymptomatic malaria carriers represent an important reservoir for malaria transmission. Estimating the burden at a fine scale and identifying areas at high risk of asymptomatic carriage are important to guide malaria control strategies. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at the communal level, the smallest geographical entity from which a local development policy can be driven. Methods The data used in this study came from several sources: the 2018 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey on Malaria and the 2019 census data and environmental data available from open sources. The analysis involved a total of 5,489 children under 5 from the malaria survey and 293,715 children under 5 from the census. The estimation approach used is that of Elbers Langjouw and Langjouw (ELL). This approach consists of including data from several sources, mainly census and survey data, in a statistical model to obtain predictions at a geographical level below that of the survey, for indicators that are not measured in the population census. The method achieves this by finding correlations between common census variables and survey data. Findings The findings suggest that the spatial distribution of the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria infection is very heterogeneous across the communes. It varies from a minimum of 5.1% (with confidence interval IC95%= [3.6 ; 6.5]) in the commune of Bobo-Dioulasso to a maximum of 41.4% (IC95%=[33.5 ; 49.4]) in the commune of Djigoué. Of the 341 communes, 208 (61%) had prevalences above the national average of 20.3% (IC95%= [18.8; 21.2]). Contribution This analysis provided commune-level estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria in Burkina Faso. The results of this analysis should help to improve planning of malaria control at the communal level in Burkina Faso.