Optimizing the nucleic acid screening strategy to mitigate regional outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in China: a modeling study

• DOI: 10.1186/s40249-022-01049-w
• Publication Date: 2023-01-16T04:07:51Z
• Authors: Yun Yin; Yuanhua Liu; Mengwei Duan; Xiyang Xie; Jie Hong; Jiaqi Huang; Ke Li; Jin Shi; Xi Chen; Hongyan Guo; Xuan Zhou; Rui Liu; Caifeng Zhou; Xiaozhe Wang; Lingcai Kong; Zhijie Zhang
• Keywords: 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads rapidly and insidiously. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) screening is an important means blocking community transmission in China, but the costs associated with testing are high. Quarantine capacity medical resources also threatened. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate different strategies balance outbreak control consumption resources. A network 2000 people, considering heterogeneities household size age structure, was generated reflect real contact networks, a stochastic individual-based dynamic model used simulate SARS-CoV-2 assess whole-area nucleic acid strategies. We designed total 87 sampling methods, frequencies screening, timings screening. performance these comprehensively evaluated by comparing cumulative infection rates, number tests, quarantine resource, which were expressed as medians (95% uncertainty intervals, 95% UIs). To implement COVID-19 for all people (Full Screening), if frequency four times/week, rate could be reduced 13% UI: 1%, 51%), miss decreased 2% 0%, 22%), resource lower than higher-frequency Full Screening or When increased from five seven times/week (which resulted 2581 increase tests per positive case), only 2%. weekly splitting them equally into batches reduce rates 73% compared once week, similar times/week. had highest case, while rate, hotel Household-based Sampling scenarios Random Screening. that If quarantine, hospital shelter seriously insufficient, stop spread virus early possible, high-frequency would necessary, intermediate may more cost-effective non-extreme situations. recommended low. potentially promising strategy implement.