Nomogram for Overall Survival of Patients With Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer After Castration

• DOI: 10.1200/jco.2002.11.021
• Publication Date: 2002-09-26T18:22:56Z
• Authors: Oren Smaletz; Howard I. Scher; Eric J. Small; David A. Verbel; Alex McMillan; Kevin Regan; W. Kevin Kelly; Michael W. Kattan
• Keywords: Nomogram; Performance status

To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for survival of patients with progressive metastatic prostate cancer after castration using parameters that are measured during routine clinical management.Pretreatment and biochemical determinants from 409 enrolled onto 19 consecutive therapeutic protocols June 1989 through January 2000 were evaluated. The factors selected age, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), hemoglobin (HGB), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase (ALK), albumin. These combined in an accelerated failure time regression to produce nomogram predict median, 1-year, 2-year survival. was validated internally externally data multicenter randomized trial suramin plus hydrocortisone versus alone.The median the entire group 15.8 months (range, 0.9 77.8 months); 87% have died. In multivariable analysis, KPS, HGB, ALK, albumin, LDH significantly associated (P <.05), whereas age PSA not. All seven included nomogram. When applied external validation set, achieved concordance index 0.67. Calibration plots suggested well calibrated all predictions.A derived on basis constructed. It can be used castrate disease reasonable accuracy. information is useful assess prognosis, guide treatment selection, design trials.