Estimates of stage-specific preclinical sojourn time across 21 cancer types.

• DOI: 10.1200/jco.2021.39.15_suppl.e18584
• Publication Date: 2021-06-02T14:28:38Z
• Authors: Michael S. Broder; Sikander Ailawadhi; Himisha Beltran; L. Johnetta Blakely; George Thomas Budd; Laurie Carr; Michael Cecchini; Patrick Wayne Cobb; Sarah N. Gibbs; Anuraag Kansal; Ashley Kim; Bradley J. Monk; Lee S. Schwartzberg; Deborah J.L. Wong; Irina Yermilov
• Keywords: Gallbladder Cancer

e18584 Background: Cancer progression rates following diagnosis are readily measured. However, the rate of cancer during preclinical sojourn time is generally unobserved. Understanding duration stages (“dwell time”) would allow clinicians to better identify appropriate screening intervals for cancer. We therefore elicited estimates a wide variety malignancies from panel clinical experts. Methods: used validated consensus methodology (RAND/UCLA modified Delphi method) elicit per-stage dwell 20 solid cancers and lymphoma Eleven experienced oncologists (general subspecialists) community academic centers reviewed literature on natural history disease estimated in number years (<1 9+ years) how long it take each progress beginning clinically detectable Stage I/II/III next stage untreated adults. histological subtypes were grouped experts asked provide an overall rating. Ratings completed before after discussion areas disagreement. Results: Expert range 21 types provided Table. Prostate thyroid be slowest growing, taking approximately 7 5 respectively through I (range 4-8), II 3-7), 3 4 2-5) III. Esophageal, lung, liver/intrahepatic bile-duct, gallbladder, pancreatic quickly all three (1-2 per stage). Conclusions: These findings summarize practicing oncologists’ disease. Experts agreed times although ranges large differences not captured. Generally, trend with published data survival treatment: higher (e.g., prostate, thyroid) grow slower, while lower pancreatic, gallbladder) faster. could useful when determining these or any subset cancers. [Table: see text]