Trend analysis of CTM-derived northern hemisphere winter total ozone using self-consistent proxies: How well can we explain dynamically induced trends?

• DOI: 10.1256/qj.05.136
• Publication Date: 2007-01-14T18:26:38Z
• Authors: Amna Jrrar; Peter Braesicke; Panos Hadjinicolaou; John A. Pyle
• Keywords: Empirical orthogonal functions; Arctic oscillation; Forcing (mathematics)

We derive characteristic spatial patterns, and their temporal evolution, for total ozone during January, February March in the northern hemisphere from a twenty-year integration of chemistry-transport model. Our aim is to identify factors influencing variability (and decadal-scale trends) develop proxies inclusion statistical models trend. The version model set up so that interannual variability, any trends, are driven purely by dynamical forcing fields. five leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions derived using singular value decomposition identified with polar-night jet, Scandinavian pattern, Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation Eliassen–Palm flux respectively. then apply trend analysis results, corresponding principal components (PCs) as multiple linear regression calculate trends. As expected, use PCs together explanatory variables explains most dynamically By comparing performance first component jet index, we establish importance calculations modulation polar vortex which influences middle latitudes late winter/spring. A suitable proxy index should be considered all future studies. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society