Optimal Routing Under Demand Surges: The Value of Future Arrival Rates

• DOI: 10.1287/opre.2022.0282
• Publication Date: 2023-09-04T12:32:37Z
• Authors: Jinsheng Chen; Jing Dong; Pengyi Shi
• Keywords: Value (mathematics); Surge Capacity

When having access to demand forecasts, a crucial question is how effectively use this information make better resource allocation decisions, especially during surges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite emergence of various advanced prediction models for hospital resources, there has been lack prescriptive solutions managers seeking concrete decision support, example, guidance on whether allocate beds from other specialties meet surge patients by postponing elective surgeries. In their paper “Optimal Routing under Demand Surge: Value Future Arrival Rate,” authors present systematic framework incorporate future into routing decisions in parallel server systems with partial flexibility and quantify benefits doing so. They propose simple interpretable two-stage index-based policy that explicitly incorporates forecasts real-time decisions. Their analytical numerical results demonstrate policy’s effectiveness, even presence large errors.