National Assessment of Human Health Effects of Climate Change in Portugal: Approach and Key Findings

• DOI: 10.1289/ehp.8431
• Publication Date: 2006-07-11T17:59:13Z
• Authors: Elsa Casimiro; Jose Calheiros; Filipe Duarte Santos; Sari Kovats
• Keywords: Tropospheric ozone

In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution-related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used scenarios from two regional models for a range future time periods. annual death rates Lisbon may increase between 5.4 6 per 100,000 1980-1998 to 8.5 12.1 by 2020s maximum 29.5 2050s, if no adaptations occur. projected warmer more variable weather result better dispersion nitrogen dioxide levels winter, whereas higher temperatures reduce quality during months increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated risk zoonoses using ecologic describe changes vectors parasites. Malaria schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic Portugal, sensitive introduction infected than temperature changes. Higher transmission that such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, Mediterranean spotted fever.