Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.
Greenhouse Effect
Plasmodium
Integrated modeling approach
Disability-adjusted life years
Models, Biological
Disease Outbreaks
Malaria
3. Good health
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Risk Factors
13. Climate action
Climate change
Animals
Humans
Environmental Health
DOI:
10.1289/ehp.95103458
Publication Date:
2011-04-13T16:43:26Z
AUTHORS (5)
ABSTRACT
The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes malaria epidemic potential next century. concept disability-adjusted life years is included arrive at a single measure effect on health impact malaria. Assessment incidence suggests widespread increase risk due expansion areas suitable transmission. This predicted most pronounced borders endemic higher altitudes within areas. infection Southeast Asia, South America, parts Africa where disease less endemic; these regions numbers healthy lost may significantly. However, simulated must be interpreted basis local environmental conditions, effects socioeconomic developments, control programs or capabilities.
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