Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.

• DOI: 10.1289/ehp.95103458
• Publication Date: 2011-04-13T16:43:26Z
• Authors: W J Martens; L W Niessen; J Rotmans; T H Jetten; A J McMichael
• Keywords: Greenhouse Effect; Plasmodium; Integrated modeling approach; Disability-adjusted life years; Models, Biological; Disease Outbreaks; Malaria; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Risk Factors; 13. Climate action; Climate change; Animals; Humans; Environmental Health

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes malaria epidemic potential next century. concept disability-adjusted life years is included arrive at a single measure effect on health impact malaria. Assessment incidence suggests widespread increase risk due expansion areas suitable transmission. This predicted most pronounced borders endemic higher altitudes within areas. infection Southeast Asia, South America, parts Africa where disease less endemic; these regions numbers healthy lost may significantly. However, simulated must be interpreted basis local environmental conditions, effects socioeconomic developments, control programs or capabilities.