Expert opinion on extinction risk and climate change adaptation for biodiversity

• DOI: 10.12952/journal.elementa.000057
• Publication Date: 2015-07-15T13:42:02Z
• Authors: Debra Javeline; Jessica J. Hellmann; Jason S. McLachlan; Dov F. Sax; Mark W. Schwartz; Rodrigo Castro Co...
• Keywords: Relocation; Extinction (optical mineralogy); Global biodiversity; Extinction debt

Abstract Despite projections of biodiversity loss and proposed adaptations to climate change, few data exist on the feasibility effectiveness adaptation strategies in minimizing loss. Given urgent need for action, scientific experts can fill critical information gaps by providing rapid discerning risk assessment. A survey 2,329 projects, average, that 9.5% species will become extinct due change within next 100 years. This average projection is low relative previously published values but substantial absolute terms, because it amounts a hundreds thousands over century. The increases 21% when are asked estimate percentage years combination with other causes. More than three-quarters respondents reported being uncertain about their extinction estimates. majority preferred protected areas or corridors reduce identified ex situ conservation no intervention as most feasible strategies. Experts also suggest managed relocation species, particular strategy, justifiable effective some situations not others. Justifiable circumstances include prevention overcoming human-made barriers dispersal, while divided potential taxonomic groups, higher percentages predict woody plants, terrestrial insects, mammals. Most open benefits concerned unintended harmful consequences, particularly putting non-target at extinction. On balance, scientists feel relocation, despite controversy it, be part portfolio.