[Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Crop Cultivation Carbon Footprint in the Loess Plateau： Driving Force and Trend Prediction].

• DOI: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202405096
• Publication Date: 2025-05-08
• Authors: Kang Liu; Han Zhang; Ling Wang
• Keywords: Loess plateau; Footprint; Carbon Footprint

Reducing the carbon footprint of crop cultivation is practically important in realizing goal "double carbon" and sustainable development agriculture. However, established studies have paid insufficient attention to spatial temporal heterogeneity factors influencing as well future trends footprint. The Loess Plateau, an ecological barrier China a typical region for dryland agriculture, has been facing large pressure on production activities recent years. In view this, this study measures Plateau based Life Cycle Assessment （LCA） method, captures evolutionary pattern with help analysis, identifies by using GTWR model, predicts trend found that： ① general showed upward then downward was characterized obvious heterogeneity, high footprints cities Yulin, Weinan, Yuncheng, Bayannur low eight such Xining Wuhai. Over time, gradually evolved from isolated individuals regional linkages. ② spatio-temporal patterns dynamics were influenced multiple factors. level financial support urbanization, agricultural mechanization could inhibit most cities. impacts cropland management scale fertilizer input intensity predominantly positive, while raising replanting index increasing effective irrigated areas will exacerbate cultivation. ③ It predicted that 2030, area decrease 4.271 million hm2, Shanxi Inner Mongolia； significant Shaanxi Gansu； basically unchanged Ningxia, Qinghai, Henan. Based results study, targeted policy recommendations are proposed reduce conclusions useful green low-carbon other arid areas.