A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001128
• Publication Date: 2021-03-22T17:22:44Z
• Authors: Kwang Su Kim; Keisuke Ejima; Shoya Iwanami; Yasuhisa Fujita; Hirofumi Ohashi; Yoshiki Koizumi; Yusuke Asai; Shinji Nakaoka; Koichi Watashi; Kazuyuki Aihara; Robin N. Thompson; Ruian Ke; Alan S. Perelson; Shingo Iwami
• Keywords: Viral Shedding; Basic reproduction number; Viral Pathogenesis; Coronavirus

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published load data, we compare within-host SARS-CoV-2 analogous MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses revealed that reproduction number at symptom onset was statistically significantly larger than similar In addition, time from peak for infection shorter those These findings suggest difficulty controlling antivirals. We further used predict efficacy potential drugs have different modes action. measured reduction area under curve (AUC). results indicate block de novo or virus production are likely effective if only initiated before (which appears 2–3 days after onset), but promote cytotoxicity cells effects less sensitivity timing treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining therapy promotes one blocks synergistically reduces AUC early treatment. unique modeling approach provides insights into pathogenesis may useful development therapies.