Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005192
• Publication Date: 2016-11-23T13:27:43Z
• Authors: Milen Nikolov; Caitlin A. Bever; Alexander Upfill-...; Busiku Hamainza; John M. Miller; Philip A. Eckhoff; Edward A. Wenger; Jaline Gerardin
• Keywords: Male; Mosquito Control; QH301-705.5; Zambia; Health Promotion; Antimalarials; 03 medical and health sciences; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; 0302 clinical medicine; Risk Factors; Outcome Assessment, Health Care; Prevalence; Humans; Computer Simulation; Biology (General); Disease Eradication; Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution; 2. Zero hunger; Models, Statistical; Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); 1. No poverty; Malaria; 3. Good health; Population Surveillance; FOS: Biological sciences; Female; Research Article

As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part a multi-country elimination effort and presents particular challenge as it an interconnected region variable intensities. In 2012–13, six rounds mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the region. A spatial dynamical model area, with climate modeled at village scale, was calibrated 2012–13 prevalence survey data, case management rates, insecticide-treated net usage, campaign coverage informed by surveillance. captured spatio-temporal trends decline rebound scale. Various implemented between 2016–22 simulated compare their effects on reducing regional achieving maintaining through 2030. Simulations predict that requires sustaining high vector control over several years. When measures are well-implemented, targeted high-burden areas further increase likelihood although cannot compensate for insufficient control. If infections regularly imported from outside into highly receptive areas, must be maintained within until importations cease. Elimination possible, human movement both risk damaging success programs.