Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009288
• Publication Date: 2021-09-02T17:27:33Z
• Authors: Simon Bauer; Sebastian Contreras; Jonas Dehning; Matthias Linden; Emil Iftekhar; Sebastian B. Mohr; Alvaro Olivera-Nappa; Viola Priesemann
• Keywords: Pace

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological data, we quantified rate (relative progress) at which countries can non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting (accepting high mortality morbidity) reducing case numbers level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate local spreading events. In general, age-dependent roll-out implies transient decrease more than ten years in average age ICU patients deceased. The pace determines speed restrictions; Taking European Union (EU) an example case, all considered allow steadily increasing contacts starting May 2021 relaxing by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact will remain necessary. vaccine uptake prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts long-term success campaigns strongly demographics. addition, highlight need preventive measures reduce contagion school settings throughout year children might be drivers because them Strategies that maintain low numbers, instead ones, infections deaths factors eleven five, respectively. policies with significantly benefit vaccination, overall reduction susceptibility diminish viral spread. Keeping is safest it considerably reduces morbidity better preparedness against emerging escape or contagious virus variants while still allowing higher (freedom) progressing vaccinations.