Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220
• Publication Date: 2018-04-19T17:27:30Z
• Authors: Mikhail V. Matz; Eric A. Treml; Galina V. Aglyamova; Line K. Bay
• Keywords: Local adaptation; Metapopulation

Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future common coral Acropora millepora on Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Genomics-derived migration rates were high (0.1–1% immigrants per generation across half latitudinal range GBR) closely matched model larval dispersal. Both models indicated prevalence southward along GBR that would facilitate spread heat-tolerant alleles higher latitudes as climate warms. We developed an individual-based metapopulation polygenic parameterized it sizes derived from genomic analysis. find do not disrupt local thermal adaptation, resulting standing variation should be sufficient fuel rapid region-wide A. populations gradual warming over next 20–50 generations (100–250 years). Further based novel mutations might also possible, but this depends currently unknown parameters underlying tolerance realized. Despite capacity for our predicts become increasingly sensitive random fluctuations such ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well recent increase frequency catastrophic bleaching events.