How Has the Age-Related Process of Overweight or Obesity Development Changed over Time? Co-ordinated Analyses of Individual Participant Data from Five United Kingdom Birth Cohorts

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001828
• Publication Date: 2015-05-19T13:50:07Z
• Authors: William Johnson; Leah Li; Diana Kuh; Rebecca Hardy
• Keywords: Longitudinal Study; Life course approach

Background There is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data United Kingdom birth cohort studies, we investigated shifts over past nearly 70 years distribution body mass index (BMI) and development obesity across childhood adulthood. Methods Findings The sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey Health Development (NSHD; ages 2–64 years), 1958 Child Study (NCDS; 7–50), 1970 British Cohort (BCS; 10–42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Parents Children (ALSPAC; 7–18), 2001 Millennium (MCS; 3–11). Growth references showed trend toward positive skewing at younger ages. During childhood, 50th centiles for all studies lay middle International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, age when centile first entered range (i.e., 25–29.9 kg/m2) decreased NSHD, NCDS, BCS from 41 to 33 30 males 48 44 females. Trajectories that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities Overweight became probable NCDS than NSHD early adolescence, example. By 10 years, estimated after 1980s were 2–3 times those before (e.g., 0.229 [95% CI 0.219–0.240] MCS males; 0.071 [0.065–0.078] males). It was not possible (1) model separate trajectories obesity, because there few cases young earliest-born cohorts, (2) consider ethnic minority groups. end date analyses August 2014. Conclusions Our results demonstrate how generations are likely accumulate exposure throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease type 2 diabetes mellitus. In absence effective intervention, will have severe public consequences decades come.