Forest Structure and Roe Deer Abundance Predict Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Italy

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004336
• Publication Date: 2009-01-30T23:36:12Z
• Authors: Annapaola Rizzoli; Heidi C. Hauffe; Valentina Tagliap...; Markus Neteler; Roberto Rosà
• Keywords: Tick-borne encephalitis

Background The Western Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus often causes devastating or lethal disease. In Europe, the number of human TBE cases has increased dramatically over last decade, risk areas are expanding and new foci being discovered every year. early localisation identification main factors associated with disease emergence represent a priority for public health community. Although socio-economic parameters have been suggested to explain upsurges in eastern principal driving relatively stable western European countries not identified. Methodology/Principal Findings this paper, we analyse correlation between upsurge 17 alpine provinces northern Italy from 1992 2006 climatic variables, forest structure (as proxy small mammal reservoir host abundance), abundance large vertebrate tick (roe deer), using datasets available 40 years. No significant differences pattern changes variables where emerged compared were no clinical observed date. Instead, best model explaining increase incidence humans area include structure, particular ratio coppice high stand forest, density roe deer. Conclusion/Significance Substantial vegetation that improve habitat suitability hosts (small mammals), as well an deer due land wildlife management practices, likely be among most crucial affecting circulation potential and, consequently, Europe. We believe our approach will useful predicting on wider scale.