Under-Reporting of Road Traffic Mortality in Developing Countries: Application of a Capture-Recapture Statistical Model to Refine Mortality Estimates

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0031091
• Publication Date: 2012-02-15T17:34:52Z
• Authors: Jonathan C. Samuel; Edward Sankhulani; Javeria S. Qureshi; Paul Baloyi; Charles Thupi; Clara N. Lee; William C. Miller; Bruce A. Cairns; Anthony G. Charles
• Keywords: Mark and recapture

Road traffic injuries are a major cause of preventable death in sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate epidemiologic data scarce and under-reporting from primary sources is common. Our objectives were to estimate the incidence road deaths Malawi using capture-recapture statistical analysis determine what future efforts will best improve upon this estimate. model combined both police hospital-based registries over one year period (July 2008 June 2009). The mortality incidences 0.075 0.051 deaths/1000 person-years, respectively. Using analysis, ranged 0.192–0.209 person-years. Additionally, more likely include victims who male, drivers or pedestrians, incidents with greater than vehicle involved. We concluded that good tool deaths, overcomes limitations incomplete sources. World Health Organization estimated for utilizing binomial regression survey found similar despite strikingly different methods, suggesting approaches valid. Further research should seek through utilization two improving accuracy matches by minimizing missing data, application geographic information systems, use names civil registration numbers if available.