Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071713
• Publication Date: 2013-08-28T21:19:14Z
• Authors: Phillip Jones; David Gunnell; Stephen Platt; Jonathan Scourfield; Keith Lloyd; Peter Huxley; Ann John; Babar Kamran; Claudia Wells; Michael Dennis
• Keywords: Accidental; Suicide methods; Borough

Background Up to 2% of suicides in young people may occur clusters i.e., close together time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national international news media a suspected suicide cluster among living Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, temporal geographical limits. Methods findings The analysis is based on official mortality statistics Wales 2000–2009 provided UK's Office National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial performed using Space Time Permutation Scan with SaTScan v9.1 deaths aged 15 over, sub-group focussing cases 15–34 years. These analyses were conducted coded ONS as: (i) or undetermined intent (probable suicides) (ii) combination suicide, undetermined, accidental poisoning hanging (possible suicides). temporo-spatial did not identify any However, all intent, identified (p = 0.029) involving 10 amongst year olds centred County Borough Bridgend period 27th December 2007 19th February 2008. Less than 1% possible younger ten as being cluster-related. Conclusions There between smaller, shorter duration, predominantly later phenomenon that reported print media. Further investigation factors leading onset termination series deaths, particular role media, required.