Field Evidence of Colonisation by Holm Oak, at the Northern Margin of Its Distribution Range, during the Anthropocene Period

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080443
• Publication Date: 2013-11-19T03:24:23Z
• Authors: Sylvain Delzon; Morgane Urli; Jean-Charles Sama...; Jean-Baptiste Lamy; Heike Lischke; Fabrice Sin; Niklaus E. Zimmer...; Annabel J. Porté
• Keywords: Colonisation; Anthropocene; Species distribution; Global Change

A major unknown in the context of current climate change is extent to which populations slowly migrating species, such as trees, will track shifting climates. Niche modelling generally predicts substantial northward shifts suitable habitats. There therefore an urgent need for field-based forest observations corroborate these extensive model simulations. We used inventory data providing presence/absence information from just over a century (1880-2010) Mediterranean species (Quercus ilex) forests located at northern edge its distribution. The main goals study were (i) investigate whether this has actually spread into new areas during Anthropocene period and (ii) provide direct estimation tree migration rate. show that Q. ilex colonised last century. However, maximum rate colonisation by (22 57 m/year) was much slower than predicted models necessary follow changes habitat suitability since 1880. Our results suggest rates dispersion establishment may also be too low bioclimatic envelopes future. inclusion contemporary, rather historical, should improve our understanding response change.