Modelling the Force of Infection for Hepatitis A in an Urban Population-Based Survey: A Comparison of Transmission Patterns in Brazilian Macro-Regions

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0094622
• Publication Date: 2014-05-20T16:18:23Z
• Authors: Ricardo Arraes de...; Celina Maria Turc...; Marcos Amaku; Ana Marli C. Sartori; Patricia Coelho d...; Hillegonda Maria ...; Leila Maria Morei...; Regina Célia Moreira; Gerusa Maria Figu...; Raymundo Soares d...
• Keywords: Seroprevalence

Background This study aimed to identify the transmission pattern of hepatitis A (HA) infection based on a primary dataset from Brazilian National Hepatitis Survey in pre-vaccination context. The national survey conducted urban areas disclosed two epidemiological scenarios with low and intermediate HA endemicity. Methods catalytic model was built seroprevalence (2005 2009). data 7,062 individuals aged 5–69 years all macro-regions were included. We up three models: fully homogeneous mixing model, constant contact pattern; highly assortative additional component accounting for contacts infected food/water. Curves prevalence, force (FOI) number new infections 99% confidence intervals (CIs) compared between (North, Northeast, Midwest Federal District) (South Southeast) endemicity areas. contour plot also constructed. Results anti- HAV IgG 68.8% (95% CI, 64.8%–72.5%) 33.7% 32.4%–35.1%) areas, respectively, according field analysis. models showed that higher identified 10- 19-year-old age cohort (∼9,000 per year 100,000 susceptible persons) area, whereas occurred 15- 29-year-old (∼6,000 other macro-regions. Conclusion Our findings support shift Brazil toward levels risk older groups. These estimates stratified by are useful information characterize scenario Brazil.