A Mechanistic Model of Botrytis cinerea on Grapevines That Includes Weather, Vine Growth Stage, and the Main Infection Pathways

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140444
• Publication Date: 2015-10-13T18:46:25Z
• Authors: Elisa González-Do...; Tito Caffi; Nicola Ciliberti; Vittorio Rossi
• Keywords: Vineyard; Botrytis; Vine

A mechanistic model for Botrytis cinerea on grapevine was developed. The model, which accounts conidia production various inoculum sources and multiple infection pathways, considers two periods. During the first period ("inflorescences clearly visible" to "berries groat-sized"), calculates: i) severity inflorescences young clusters caused by (SEV1). second ("majority of berries touching" ripe harvest"), ii) ripening (SEV2); iii) berry-to-berry mycelium (SEV3). validated in 21 epidemics (vineyard × year combinations) between 2009 2014 Italy France. discriminant function analysis (DFA) used to: evaluate ability predict mild, intermediate, severe epidemics; assess how SEV1, SEV2, SEV3 contribute epidemics. correctly classified 17 Results from DFA were also calculate daily probabilities that an ongoing epidemic would be or severe. SEV1 most influential variable discriminating mild intermediate epidemics, whereas SEV2 relevant represents improvement previous B. models viticulture could useful making decisions about bunch rot control.