Factors determining dengue outbreak in Malaysia

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193326
• Publication Date: 2018-02-23T19:14:27Z
• Authors: Rohani Ahmad; Ismail Suzilah; Wan Mohamad Ali W...; Omar Topek; Ibrahim Mustafakamal; Han Lim Lee
• Keywords: Distributed lag

A large scale study was conducted to elucidate the true relationship among entomological, epidemiological and environmental factors that contributed dengue outbreak in Malaysia. Two areas (Selayang Bandar Baru Bangi) were selected this based on five consecutive years of high cases. Entomological data collected using ovitraps where number larvae used reflect Aedes mosquito population size; followed by RT-PCR screening detect serotype virus mosquitoes. Notified cases, date disease onset, type interventions as endpoint, while rainfall, temperature, relative humidity air pollution index (API) indicators for data. The field during 81 weeks collection. Correlation Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model determine relationship. showed that, notified cases indirectly related with data, but shifted one week, i.e. last 3 positive PCR; 4 rainfall; maximum humidity; minimum temperature; (API), respectively. also next week intervention, conventional intervention only happened after found, indicating ample time transmission. Based a significant three (epidemiological, entomological environmental), estimated (ADL) model both locations produced accuracy 84.9% Selayang 84.1% Bangi predicting actual Hence, such can be forestalling acts an early warning system. existence relationships build system prediction so preventive taken avert outbreaks.