Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200201
• Publication Date: 2018-07-25T13:32:27Z
• Authors: Christian Unterbe...; Lukas Brunner; Stefan Nabernegg; Karl W. Steininger; Andrea K. Steiner; Edith Stabentheiner; Stephan Monschein; Heimo Truhetz
• Keywords: Frost (temperature)

Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential cause significant damages yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown be one of factors that trigger cold spells spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions any change future frequency duration episodes due climate change, combination their stable occurrence biological system under warming trend can lead economic damage increases. To evaluate frost apple producers south-eastern Styria, we combine phenological sequential model highly resolved projections Austria. Our projects mean advance blooming -1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting bloom onset towards early by end 21st century. findings indicate overall cultures will remain warmer potentially even increase stronger connection between spring identified from observational data. prospectively deal risk, measures are needed either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers' income other means. We identify appropriate adaptation relate costs increase. Even if applied successfully, these residual represent additional related costs.