Monte-Carlo value analysis of High-Throughput Satellites: Value levers, tradeoffs, and implications for operators and investors

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222133
• Publication Date: 2019-09-11T17:42:58Z
• Authors: Fan Geng; David B. Gomez; Yue Guan; Joseph Homer Saleh
• Keywords: Communications satellite

High-Throughput Satellites (HTS) are a distinctive class of communication satellites that provide significantly more throughput per allocated bandwidth than traditional wide-beam satellites. They the proverbial wave creative disruption in space industry and poised to disrupt market significant ways. The objective this work is develop decision-analytic framework for assessing value meaningful results such systems under realistic design, operational, conditions. We cost revenue models HTS. To build model, we hybrid data-driven scenario-based load factor model combines historical data based on financial records from current HTS operators with extrapolations best-, nominal-, worst-case scenarios. then integrate within stochastic simulation environment perform Monte-Carlo analysis net present (NPV) One important result medium-sized outperforms roughly equivalent satellite, even loading scenario. Another result, here identified quantified, tradeoff between average user (ARPU) satellite how it mediated by downlink speed provided consumers. This can be used different ways, example, helping define boundaries what competitively achievable terms ARPU offerings. implications these they delineate pathways failure beyond which an will value-negative, or alternatively, asymptotic minimum values value-positive.