Assessing the current and future potential geographic distribution of the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237191
• Publication Date: 2020-08-10T17:44:13Z
• Authors: Gunavanthi D. Y. ...; A. Townsend Peterson; Desmond H. Foley; Roman R. Ganta; Ram K. Raghavan
• Keywords: Dermacentor variabilis; Dermacentor

The American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis, is a veterinary- and medically- significant tick species that known to transmit several diseases animal human hosts. spatial distribution of this in North America not well understood, however; knowledge likely changes its future geographic owing ongoing climate change needed for proper public health planning messaging. Two recent studies have evaluated these topics D. variabilis; however, less-rigorous modeling approaches those may led erroneous predictions. We the present using correlative maximum entropy approach, publicly available occurrence information. Future potential distributions were predicted under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios; RCP 4.5 low-emissions 8.5 high-emissions. Our results indicated broader current all directions relative currently extent, dramatic westward northward expansion suitable areas both scenarios. Implications disease ecology are discussed.