Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258997
• Publication Date: 2021-11-24T18:22:20Z
• Authors: Debra Van Egeren; Madison Stoddard; Alexander Novokhodko; Michael S. Rogers; Diane Joseph-McCa...; Bruce Zetter; Arijit Chakravarty
• Keywords: Pandemic; Herd Immunity

The development and deployment of several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a little over year is an unprecedented achievement modern medicine. high levels efficacy against transmission for some these makes it feasible to use them suppress altogether regions with vaccine acceptance. However, viral variants reduced susceptibility vaccinal natural immunity threaten the utility vaccines, particularly scenarios where return pre-pandemic conditions occurs before suppression transmission. In this work we model situation United States May-June 2021, demonstrate how pre-existing may cause rebound wave COVID-19 matter months under certain set conditions. A burden morbidity (and likely mortality) remains possible, even if are partially effective new widely accepted. Our modeling suggests that already present within population be capable quickly defeating as public health intervention, serious potential limitation strategies emphasize rapid reopening achieving control SARS-CoV-2.