Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267128
• Publication Date: 2022-04-21T17:40:53Z
• Authors: Dong Jiang; Tian Ma; Mengmeng Hao; Fangyu Ding; Kai Sun; Qian Wang; Tingting Kang; Di Wang; Shen Zhao; Meng Li; Xiaolan Xie; Peiwei Fan; Ze Meng; Shize Zhang; Yushu Qian; John Edwards; Shuai Chen; Yin Li
• Keywords: African Swine Fever; Scope (computer science)

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia the past decades. However, potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with assembled contemporary records cases multiple covariates predict risk distribution at global scale. Local spatial variations derived from domestic pigs influenced strongly by livestock factors, while having wild boars mainly associated natural habitat covariates. The maps show that be ubiquitous areas, higher areas northern hemisphere. Nearly half world’s (1.388 billion) are high-risk zones. Our results provide better understanding beyond current geographical scope disease.