Statistical population reconstruction of moose (Alces alces) in northeastern Minnesota using integrated population models

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270615
• Publication Date: 2022-09-27T17:34:54Z
• Authors: William J. Severud; Sergey S. Berg; Connor A. Ernst; Glenn D. DelGiudice; Seth A. Moore; Steve K. Windels; Ron A. Moen; Edmund J. Isaac; Tiffany M. Wolf
• Keywords: 0106 biological sciences; Science; Deer; Minnesota; Q; R; 15. Life on land; 01 natural sciences; Pregnancy; North America; Medicine; Animals; Female; Research Article

Given recent and abrupt declines in the abundance of moose ( Alces alces ) throughout parts Minnesota elsewhere North America, accurately estimating statewide population trends demographic parameters is a high priority for their continued management conservation. Statistical reconstruction using integrated models provides flexible framework combining information from multiple studies to produce robust estimates abundance, recruitment, survival. We used this combine aerial survey data survival telemetry recreate demographics northeastern Minnesota, USA, 2005 2020. confirmed sharp decline an estimated 7,841 (90% CI = 6,702–8,933) 2009 3,386 2,681–4,243) animals 2013, but also indicated that has remained relatively stable since then, except slight 3,163 2,403–3,718) Subsequent stochastic projection 2021 2030 suggests modest will continue next 10 years. Both annual adult per-capita recruitment (number calves survived 1 year per female alive during previous year) decreased substantially years 2019, 0.902 (SE 0.043) 0.689 0.061) 0.386 0.030) 0.303 0.051), respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed was more sensitive fluctuations than recruitment; thus, we conclude steep 2013 driven primarily by decreasing Our demonstrates potential utility statistical monitor identify quickly. Future should focus on providing better pregnancy rates calf survival, which can then be incorporated into help improve change through time.