Modeling the future of HIV in Turkey: Cost-effectiveness analysis of improving testing and diagnosis

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286254
• Publication Date: 2023-06-30T17:28:08Z
• Authors: Emine Yaylali; Zikriye Melisa Er...; Fethi Calisir; Deniz Gokengin; Volkan Korten; Fehmi Tabak; Yesim Tasova; Serhat Unal; Berna Ozelgun; Tahsin Gokcem Ozc...; Toros Sahin
• Keywords: HIV diagnosis

This study aimed to determine HIV incidence and prevalence in Turkey estimate the cost-effectiveness of improving testing diagnosis next 20 years.HIV has been rapidly increasing last decade with a particularly high rate infection for younger populations, which underscores urgent need robust prevention program improved capacity HIV.We developed dynamic compartmental model transmission progression among Turkish population aged 15-64 assessed effect diagnosis. The generated number new cases by risk CD4 level, diagnoses, prevalence, continuum care, HIV-related deaths, expected infections prevented from 2020 2040. We also explored cost impact diagnosis.Under base case scenario, estimated an 13,462 2020, 63% undiagnosed. was increase 27% 2040, 2040 reaching 376,889 2,414,965 cases. Improving 50%, 70%, 90%, would prevent 782,789, 2,059,399, 2,336,564 infections-32%, 85%, 97% reduction years, respectively. Improved reduce spending between $1.8 $8.8 billion.In no improvement current will significantly over placing significant burden on healthcare system. However, could substantially infections, ameliorating public health disease aspects.