Evaluation and prediction of carbon emission from logistics at city scale for low-carbon development strategy

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298206
• Publication Date: 2024-02-29T18:48:21Z
• Authors: Junyu Chen; Yan Zhu; Chuanming Yang; Huimin Wang; Ke Wang
• Keywords: Carbon fibers; Emission intensity; Tobit model

Low-carbon is a part of China’s efforts to pursue the national strategy “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.” Meanwhile, path low-carbon transformation logistics has become topic global concern. This study constructs technical framework emissions (LCE), which composed emission evaluation, prediction strategy. All 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu, China, are application objects empirical research. Then, influence analysis LCE efficiency based on panel Tobit model evolution under different scenarios explored. The results show that: (ⅰ) during period (2013–2020), Jiangsu showed an overall upward trend, with Xuzhou, Suzhou Nanjing being highest emissions; (ⅱ) static at medium level, fluctuations Suzhou, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Nantong, Suqian caused by change index; (ⅲ) economic industrial structure, fixed asset utilization rate, ecological environment significantly positively correlated efficiency, while education popularization energy intensity negative; (ⅳ) been drastically reduced scenario compared baseline scenario. On above basis, this proposes suggestions for development strategies Jiangsu.