Epidemiological insights into paratuberculosis in camels in Saudi Arabia: Bayesian estimation of true prevalence and identification of risk factors

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299881
• Publication Date: 2024-03-19T17:25:28Z
• Authors: A. Al Naeem; M. Salem; F. Housawi; K. Al-Mohammed Salem; J. Hussen; M. Fayez; A. Zaghawa; P. Kostoulas
• Keywords: Odds; Credible interval

Paratuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), is a significant concern in the camel population of Saudi Arabia. This study aimed to provide epidemiological insights into disease estimating true prevalence camels Eastern Province and Riyadh, using Bayesian estimation framework, exploring associated risk factors through frequentist approach. A total 1200 blood samples were collected analyzed an indirect ELISA method. The herd-level was estimated at 0.7 (95% probability interval: 0.57 0.81), mean expected animal-level 0.17 (0.14 0.20). Risk with Map seropositivity identified, including sex, breed, raising system, production type. Females, single breed camels, nomadic systems found have lower odds seropositivity, while used for racing show had significantly higher odds. study's approach, adjusting imperfect accuracy MAP tests, provides nuanced understanding disease's region. integration estimates factor analysis offers comprehensive framework that can guide future policies strategies fight against findings emphasize importance targeted control measures, underscoring urgent need interventions Arabia's population. By its factors, we enhance management strategies, offering valuable eradication efforts